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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  July 14, 2009 4:00am-6:00am EDT

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i'm m christintan. japan's prprime minier, taro ason surviveves a noonfidence vote. d i'm ross westgate inin europe. we've had the f first major takeov in germanyny this year. an i'm scocott wl nern the u.s. goldman sachs is the firstf the wawalltreet banks to report results this week. helello and welcome cnbc'c "worldwide exchange.e." the earnings seaeason kicks off
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today y witholdman sachs redith whihitney, e biggest o of the sort of analysts changed her rati to a me positivive stanance. that held t equity mamarkets a little firmemer. take a l look at the sectors th ar gaing, resource stocks are the bigst gair yeyesterday. bank insurance, f financial services and then autotos. xetrtra dax, nearlyy 1 mersrs. c 40 up.5%. smup about 1 at the moment. e as youou might expxpectwith equities fier, so the ye has got weak er doar/yen just slipped dodown to 93. euro/dollar, we were att 3950 yesterday. now 's only marginally higherer. erling, 1.629 eu/sterling hasipped back
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down to o .8582. >> hey, ros heren ia, a l lot of renew optitimism. we had gdp comingg out in singapore toto show the econono came out of a rerecession. thatat fled optimisism in the equity markets.. take a look at the japan eququi market for instance. fwanks t there takiking a nice y frfrom the on rall theshanghai markeketp 271%. the nikkeiei 225 u up 2.. th kospip .5%. the hang se, big winnener up 3.7% a the bombay sensexp 27.%. oil so seems to be recoveringng. nymex light sweetrude is up $664. and brbrent i trading up the 93 nts, $665 a barrel. scscott, how are the fures
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lookoking day? >> letake a looook ahead of thosee highlyanticipated goldman sas numbers out we'r're going to get a readn goldman bebefore t opopening of trade dey today coming off of yesterdas optimismic lead in the mararketon tt big merededit whney call. take a look a andyou'll see t t dodow is vtually fl, clearly ahead of a hoing pattern aheadad of those numbebers. tail sales and ppi, so we'll gea read onn inflation. e nasdaqq could be uer a little pressure day. ev though dell said theirr businessss is s stabili inging, he have we'll hahave to take a look at their mains. let's ke a look at the bundnd yield, as well. 3.32%. les turn our focusto the u.s. treasury rket. a lot of dadata, as i said toda. you know that ththe bond mket is gointo be active as a a result of that. take a lolook at ld, as well, as
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we with s set you up f the trading day herere in the u uni stateses. $921.95.5. joining us nowow is cistian blaabjerg and robert howell is the ceo off metrics. robert, , a lot numbers ahead of goman today and other mbers this week what areour expect ages around goldman and the othersrs? >> i thinink meredith h is thec of thehe ctor. they will surpse. they h have beenggressive whwhe someme of the compitors h have not. i ink prots will surprise e and the markets wiwill be up little bibit more tay. >> yeah. trishan,n, most people expecect goman to handily beatthose
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number is goldman a proxyor anything or is it jusust a goldmamanstor? does it porten anything? >> in our vview, goldman is goldman and it's not a oxy for ththe financial sector. you take retail bks in the u.s., for example,e expect themo come out and makake bstantialrite-offs due to the fact that we se unemploymement ssing 10% befo ye-end. bsequently, goldman is goldn.n. they h have mademomoney, as the former speakersaid, on the tradining book. some of their competitors may have made a few bucks s on thei trading book,, b but it's goldmn story. >> s what happenened we get t better than expted numberers out,christiaian,rom bank of americor for citi this week becausepresumamably, they're muh more reflective othe wiwider onomy. >> y yes, exacy. then w we have a huge sururpriso
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the up -- if w we have a surpri to the upside then we e will hae a reflectionn the broer u.s. economy and then that cod be an importatant sign for equitie to rally qte signicantly up from current lels becausethat would shshow tha u.s. consumers d the u.s. banks o or such is not much under pressu as we expepect and the marke expects an genererallyook at the pricic earngs that bank of ameca is currently trading.. that would be a a -- first o of l, a surprise. bua very portantndicator ofhe true statate of the u.s. econom so -- t quitite frankly, i donot think that's goingng to be the case >> what do y you hink, rort? beuse do you agree that there's lot of -- yo notes sayy look, there's still nsiderable cash on thehe sidelines here. could ere be a triggerer into the earnings seaso to brin that intoo play? >> well,l, i tnk somef that is comingn tomatically. we see a lot of pension plans who because of the fal in the
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equity mkets, t they're below their recommendeded asset allocation t to equitieses. ey held off rebalancingg until th consusultants told them tt wawater was safe for swimmingg about mid m march when policie out of the u.s. told us that the financial system wasn'going to cocome to an end. they'v've set u a system where they'l'll be doing systetrades ininto tech equities torebalan. these are e going tgo on f about simonths, we think. the counter to that is ththe induststrial sidand the consnsumer, e grereen shootare turning g a litt brown in the u.s. so we e think going forrd for the nexext three or four yes, you'll have e rallies like we' had and d then there going down. >> robert, speaking of green shoots siapore rose to t the
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fastest rate inin nearly s six years,oming out of a recession. who next, do yoyou think, in asia? >> the's a lot of datata out of china this week. indeeded, from just a real collapse in productionon, the world runs on n just andime and the consume and the credit markets seizezed u i in thewestn the fall so ftories shut down. the air was very clear here ini hong kong last ll. it's statarting to get a lite bit mo typic 37 so the factories are going backk on ming from a near zero level so wee getting punch growth rates and thatat ll probably continue to ta off >> chstian,hat about you,u, how hopeful that we would see an asian r revival in the seconondf ofhe yeaear? > we're qte hopeful. if w we shou put our money int equity markets anywhere, we woululd put them into emerging
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markets a asia evewhere. in general,l, we beeve thatasia will take e the leadad simimply the factcthat their debt leveve bothon the governmnment siside, the private houhold side, ass wellll, is muclower compared to rope and the u.s ani agree with the former speaker that the tha inin the next thrhree or ur years, we're going to see equitity market trade sidedeways. however, we believe tha equy markets in the u. will go lower during t this fa after the earnings s seasonas ended cause we believe we'll see a a dole dip in n the development of the economy, bot in the u. anand in europe so this upswin of recovovery we have been talking ababout all is spring is more yellow eds than actually green shoots. >> robert, i it'scott in the u.s. if the financial resultsome inn better than n expect or the results from t the financials i perhaps a better wa to say it, could thahat reverse may the overriding s sentimentn the rket right now thahat just seems
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to be that th market i going to go lower over th nex few mohs? >> su. yoknow, the all-clear signall on the fancials will certaiainly lp. you know, the fst results out were alcoa which were betetter than excted,ut most of that wasith vevery good cocostcuttin. soso, you know, if yo look at te last earnings seaeason in the u.u.s., sothing like 68%% of companiess reporng surprise positively, , but wthink it might be more lilion like 60%. this could be a decent season. weon't see thearket heheading down t to newew lowssn the u.s.a great that the outlooks beer than in asiaia. we runun an asianan fund.d. >> thanknksery much,indeed, for that, robert hhowe and christia,
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thank you very much,h, as wel christian blaabrg. w, the british housing market is abilizing, but any uprn probably won't be sustainable.e. the svey overnight id ices fefell at their lowest pace in ree years,s, but another survey is lessopmistic. it thinks home prices willl sta in t dull drums until 2015. the british retail cononsortium atibutes the rise in juneo the heatat wave and thearly ararrival summer saleles. g somem&a back in germany. ids s scer is to be purchased by . they will offer 1515 eos or 21 for r each othe raining shes. the cocombined firm wou genate aroundnd $1.4 biion in sales. swsweden's vestor has poked
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a he surge in itss second ququarter prit. it sai net assssets rose by 15%. the grououp said the pererforma was duee tthe recovery in equity mamarkets a said stimulus packages don't nececessarily guaranteteeustained growth christine. >> ross, jan's rulinblock has v voted down noo confidence motion against taro aso. . the opposition held up has endorsed a nonbinding censure against him according too kyoto news. thisomes one day after o said he wowould cal an election onugust 30th. on sday, the rdp susuffered huge ls in a tokyo assembly election. the greatatest iron orore sa in china,china is revieng
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iron o ore impor licecenses andy cancel as many 20 olymcss of thosee making speculative purchase mewhile, according toto chins natitional busininess day, auththorities ha seized several computers at o tints shanghghai office. austlia has moved up preure on dling with sternn hu. >> the government is dealing wi this issue. it involves issueof the application ofhinese law. we have a consularar agreent with them and wewe are dealing th themem in aa reonsible and measurured wa in a way in which sponsible governments s deal with these issueues. >> let's tur to goldman s sachs and take a lo at the earnings coming out this week. goldn sachs is the first o of the big u.s. banks to report
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cond quarteresults this week. goldman will post number at about 8: n new york time. many alysts b believegoman will beaeat the estimates. mereth whitney upgraded goldmasaying it woulbe aey competitor in man unpredictable markets. goldn jumped 5%5% leaeading the rally financialals onmonday.. in frankfurt, golan sachs is up another .75%. meantime, johnn & johnsonon rereports cond quarteresults fore the opening b bell today. revenu are expected to op for a thihird straight quartrte j&jrops due to generic competition for two of its drug intel repor results afterr the closing bellll. analysts belelieve the tech bellwether willignal the mand demand fofor i chips is stabilizg. ahead ofof j&j and intel's results, t take look at e stock hehereetting a ce boost
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for e earnin. meanwhwhile, dl expects pect quarter reresults the rise from the previous arter.r. this is the ory i i was mentioning earlie however, thehe compa sasays prot margins are e likelyue to drop.. dellll says siness c customersre still pututting ourchases of new technology. dell holds its annl analy meetining later today. shares fell more than 3% in after hours day. frankfururt, take look a at shs unr pressure, down by ababout 2%. anand you can getore newsws videos and blologson toy's market-moving nenews at ott, still to come on today'program, as we said, singaporore has let out of receion in the second quarter, but t is the rebebound sustaibl? german invnvestor c confidenc i set to me to a a new highin june..
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okay. let's get a roundup o our equiuity markets today with our team off rerters. we s start off with becky in london.. >> we are seeing the cnbc ftse
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100 shiing higher, about 30 points or so to the good what we're lookoking at. let's take a quick checkof the stocks that arare moving. vofone is one of e biggestt decliners on t the ftse 0 todod. sharesf that lifornia down by 1.75%.. there wawas a a downgrade by ub cutttting the rati o that s scot to a neutral from m a buy. that seems to be u underming the sharares in that mpany. elsewhe elsewhere, we see e plenty o stocks movining to t up si. we are particularly lookin at icap moving higher and lloyd's banknking group in n the finaia sector. but t it'she basic resources which arestorming ahahead. fresnillo is highery 7.7%.. also lonmin, kazakh's, xstrata up, asell. ththe british consortm said
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like-for-like sales s rose by 4 last month. of course, we ha very hot weather r in june and thatelped to spu sales of o outdoor rniture and summemer clots, accordrding to t british retl consortium. on the economic front, we also hahave hadome data from thee institute of chartered surveyors which offffers a glmer of hop on t the uk housing market.t. to the rics thehemselves are skeptitical weaer any jumpmp tu can persist because there' ways the risk fromom the difficult ongoining conditns in the glob economy. now acros to patricia to see what's going on in germany today. >> it the financials p pulling usus out o of the ll drums. we were up a about 0.9% right n on deutsche bores, comommerzban and then thr of indidual car stocks, bmwmw, daimler and m.a..
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bmw is talalking aut theecond half of 2009 looking better. but real pickup in 2010 esespeciallyue to a cple of ne mols. volkswagen, other r than, losi out a little bit ununderperfoing. but thee bigst movers tododay amongst thee sller stocks. what we have is sales dn about 11%. it is the wororldwide larger produc of s solar pane. they came bluntly through with a profit warnings warnrning fothe secondnd quarter. ththat disappopointed e mart. ststocks, onhe other hand, down about 7 after the bid on t the table forr ids shares at a prium of about who%. we were talkiking about -- i wa talking about analystcomments about this pararticular deal some may say,y, o okay, therices a lilittle steep. ids shares has ge through a restructcturing. the shares arere rallying. there were quite a few downades coming throrough from the analysts. at the moment,, softwarare is d
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but ids s shares upbout 39%. that's frankrt.. overer to ris.s. > thank y very much, patricia. 32million euros havave the traded since thehe opening of t french maet. day is lower thann a a typical day. this is holay as we' is he thee celelebrati t the annivsar of the fnch relution. renault is up nearly on ththe back of its japane unit nsan which i is going to accuracacy productionon i china by 20%. th's the good news. in fnce, the indusustry minister confirmed ththat the stem for the carmaks won't lasast foforever,ut the govovernment working on a plan to remove the bonusrogressively andhat's goodnews f for the carmaker puji don't telello citron. it's up nearly 3%. in f focus today, the bks and
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finaials, societe genenerale i the budget performer in n the sector. very q quick loo at eds after top a adviser of the french president,icholas sarkozyzy blamed thehe energy produc for its s investme mistakes. they saidd the french people wil not pay for the miskes and will n not authohorize for t th company to raise p prices 20%. now let's have a look at the asiaian markets with saijal in singapore.e. >> commoditytocks weree higher and d a very simimilar thing th you guys s have bee talking abot in europe, theanking ocks doin particularly wl afteter those cocomments fm analyst meredith whitney.y. the nikkei snapppping a nine-da
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slide heading up ove 20200 popoints. we saw thee yen restreet a litte bit, at least not t apprecting as much. autotomakers, lot of news ming out of there. stephanene just lked about nissan boosting capacacity b 20. hondsaying they're going to lift annual output to 200,000 units start from thing fromom t sternum in c china, as approximatately. so song gains technicalally forney sanan, which is u up 7.3. as for the greerhina region goes, , the hang seseng index cd up 7.3% higher. very silar picture there. the commodity scks doing very wellll. also the bankinstocksks, the shanghai c composi up 2.1% and south korea' kospi lost a little bit of team. it w up more than 1%, closing up about % higigher mainly because e we saw some o of the builde retreat.t. but ovoverall, the financials doing very welell and th steel
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stocks, , as well.. i tked about pposco reportining results s yesterda an operating profit tbling 91% butut theygot an upgrade b by morgan anley, mainpy because the outlookokas posititive. those shares up 2.3%. now w overo scott in the.s. good m morning, ott. good morningng to yo with saijal.. thanksery much. the june ppi wilbe out at 8:30 a.m. new york time.. the core ppppi,hich stripss out fofood andnergy is expecteto remainunchanged. at 8:30, ne reil sales will l be released, fororecasto rise by 15% st month and d by .6% when yoyou exclud autos at 10:00a.m.m., may business inventies are out forect to fall by.8%8%. mary schapi testifies at 10:00 a. new york time on chahanges the agencycy is making in a pos mamadoff world.
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she's expxpected to outline a number of moves alrea u under way including i improvemes in staftraining and overhauling the system for handldling tips the s.e.c. fraud. the inspector gener is expecteded to release a rert in the next six weeks on how and why the agency missed the madoff case. at is your global stocock watc christine. scott, coming up on "wldwide exchange," singape's economy bouncnces back in the second quarter. we'lll assess whethther asia ca pull the r rest of the worldld of a recessioion. >> and i inflation in the uk i expected to remain highn ju. will it f finally fall below th bank of england's 2% target? we'll find o out next. $$$$$
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upup nearly 1%, 3 popoints. eupean equity markekets are firmer, as well. as you can see,, currently up around .75% f the fe 100. nenearly 1 higherer f for the g rket. talklking abo the ukuk, our attention tururns to the latestp i fifigures. weave them.. june cpi up .3% on the month. the annuaual rate, 178%. that is theonsensus of the annu rate, 1.1.8%, the lowesest annual rate since septembeber 2001. rpi up .6 -- sorr m minus 176% the annual rate. thats the lowest annual rarate of pi inftion since thehe series beganin 1948. so the lowe lowowestver rpithat we've seen since we began memeasurinthis. ix was running at 1% on the annual rrate. that's theowest annual rate sincthe series began in january 19.6.
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the offffice ss the biggest downward cpi impact was from food and nonalholic d drink an furniture. so l's get a reactioto that. rever wilams is with us,hief economomist at lloydyd's annnnu rket. plus 1.1.8% on the annual rated very low ratesf rpi and rpx, as well. what does it mean >> well, i think the first thing it means,s,f course,,s that the economy is still extxtremely we and therefore e there's no chan ofof price rising g in that coe. and the policicy signal from th is the likikely road that th mp will leave interestt tes att .5% ll into next year. >> what abouout extending quantitatative easing? well, i think that they will spend the o only 25illion of the $1 billionavailabable. the augugust report is clearly e where they'ree going the takthe opportuny to look at the inflatation forecast, to consi
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the l likelihd of gwth over the cocoming t years and ininflation l likely to be ove th period and ii suspectct thei concluon will be that growth isis vy weak near te, wker r than t they thought itwould be n the last report andd that implis that they should not just keep .intert rates low, but thinkk they should c continue w kwau tafb easing. >> how about a r rebound in singapore tod? when youou look fo confidence o improvement t in the uk econom trevor, w where do you see any? where do o you fi the >> goingly enough, we've just done our s survey of a the 2,500 bubusiness in the uk. siness confidence, an index ich wee produced from the survey is minus 3 in the next six monthths after b being min the previous six months. so a massive impre has take
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place. and the likes likethe area are mainlyly in bunesses services. >> trerevor, sck arnd. les see if we'e'vegot any reaction to sterlilingn those figures. sterling, 1.6289. ro/dollar, 1.3998.8. that's me on the fact that equities are firmer todaday. the yen is weaker, as a result. >> hey,ross, equities aree firmerere in asia. gd rising a at an annualized seasonallylydjustedate signaling singapore h has co out of a recession after four quarters o of ctraction and thtt iselping to lift th strai times index.
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the nikikkei 22225 is up 2.2.3%. the kosospi up 0.5%. thee shanghai market up 2.1% an the ha seng is u up 377%. are, of cocourse, strong rally wall s street helpedhe h hong kong market. inerms off mex light sweetet crude,e, that ems to be revering, as wellll. brt is recovering and so is nymex. inerms of fututures, let's go to ott in the u.s. sct. >> we're lookingg ahead this morng. futuress right noww about flati terms of what the dows doing. nasdaq is slightly below. dell, while saying thatt busins has s started to stabilizize, t margins could be a a bit an issue. thatould weigh on the nasd with t the guidae from ththe viomaker take two interactive.e.
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and the s s&p as i ke a look the here,, margilly above fair value.e. the teyear yield likely to move on t that data t today, 3.38 let's bring g back in trevor willms. we saiaid he wasoing to stick around. he is still here. he's chief economistt lloloyd's tsb corpate mararkets. tror, your expepectationstodaya, goldldman is getng a lot of f t how wide hypype day. bu there'smportant data on thee horizon. reretail sales are goi to be closely tched as we try and is figure out whahat's gng on with e consur. >> yh. probably t the mt important figure will be the retail sas, of coue, because a after the disappntment of the unemployment numbers a week or so ago, the fact is that the is a lot of worry thahat this wl cae cononsumer confidence to take a dip, which it did, of course, and thatat dip in conmer confididence wilbe followed by a dip in sale anand the question, really, at e back of people's mds is whetether orot the u.s. authorities mayave to do on
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the fiscal stulus. i think the e figures day are likekely to showw that modest grth is what is takeken place. most of ththe tax cu and spending increes appear t to have been saved d by cononsumer quite turally, given that unemployment is risingng still. >> is it morore towards e latter end of the f financial this wee with bank of arica a and citi, some of those money-cecenter ban ththat will tell a a better sto? >>absolutely. ththe ones tt will tell you abt the economy are those that araren't jt d doppler raring in the finaial markrkets. goldman, of coururse, is just trading equitieies and bonds. they're m muchmproved fromherere theyey wereast year and ththe cond quarter improvent ntinues. nanaturally,hose taking risks in those markets are ming big profit. but e real economomys what matttters anthe r real economy wherere i'm afraid wewe'll see more disappointing r run off
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fifigures. rirising defaults will translate into mororerovisions being sese aside e and more write-downs wi the commercialnd residentialal markets still instrumumental struruggling ithe u.s., i think the banks which h are more main streetet wl see continueded difficultyty. >> trevor, thisis christine. we have someme dataoming out of sisingle pe andaustralia. we have sisingapor coming out o a recessn. businessonditions improvingng in auaustralia. does it lookok like asi will be thfirst to come out of of this global slumump? >> yes,t will. and remembmber,f course, tt china did not go into recession and nor did asian or india. it's pretty clear thathe asi economwill be coming out of recession n first and they'll b poised to sho aigorous recovery next year andnd leave e worl economy out of f the downturn.
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>> always good to see you, trevor. thanks so much. the u.s. treassasurer secrey isis now singapore.e. >> that hisry has beenatched by ecomic develolopment. in je itself, this city has grown om a smamall town w with h pulation of 30,0 in 1 1948 to become thehe kingdom's commerci pital with a populatioion of over 3 million saudis.s. since 1990, sdi aria's economy has gaud ruineled in size and combined the gf econies has a share of global gdp.p. this has led t to broader enomic ties betwe the region and the united states.s. since 202003, the valueue of e x ports ofof the gul has me than doubled.d. the are now 750merican companieies paradi in thee uae,
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35in saudi arabia alone. thesee dies are srt of a strtrog ststrategipartnership betweeeen the kgdom and the uninited ststates. in early une, president obama traveled to cair egypt, and called for a new beginning bebetween a american and mlim countries aroundnd the wor based mutual independence and mutual spect. he sd we mt confront problems w with partnehip, prproblems sh as terrorism, climate change andndhis economic crisisnd we are now buiuilding ththe capaci for much closer global coopeperationon most of these onts. where the venues, wherehe big dedecisionwere made on ththe chitecture of the econonomic
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system and on strategy in tes of crisis.s. in the 1990s, we creatated the g-20 and i inge briringing saud arab and other emergg economies to t the table for t first time. in the last few w months, th g-0 has played a globa role toto se this anda f fornternational finaial reform. saudi arabibia has been a kekeyt ofhat proce and the kingdom will have an impmportant voice bubuilding cperation on a morrow bust and a a strger frawork for r the prevention of future cris as a new memberer of th important t financiastability board. later today i will have the honor of meeeeting withis majes jesty, the king and his prprinciple onomic advisisers a this is to underscoree the prpresident'commitment to ststrengtheng our relationship, to review w progress,to examine the risks and challges still aheaof us an to move the g-20 rereform agea forward.
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the global econonomy today is going through one of thehe most chchallengin periods of e econo ststress i enerations. on every continent in almt every y country, businesses and familiesave expxperienced sere loss off wealth, rising unemplployment, siness failure. but the policies, thee economic policieses that ha been put in place here in thekingdgdom, in the egion, in the unitited state and aroun t the world havave hed contain n thecrcrisis, he helpe arresthe crisisis, swing the ce of decline andnd economic growthth, pullingng th global financial systemem back from th edge of failure and estabablishg the sis f for economic recover. ththe forc of the global receion is now receceding and for the fifirst time in several quarter hes, the imf in a range ofof priva analystss are start o go r revise up ththeir forecast growth in ththe secd half of the year and next year and glolobal trade is statarting to expan again. i wa to spend a few minutes descring thetrategyy thatt we believe is essential for econonomic recovery, t totake sk
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of where w we arein a addressg the cris and address the longer termhallenges we face together. our strategy has ur critil elements the first isis to stalize and repair theinancial system. no recocovery i possible withou repairing ththe institutions an the marts that are crititical to the supupplyf cred. in the u united states, we m mo quickly to work to restotore confnfidence ithe banking systm byby increasing transparency an sclosure which had bring billions dollars o of private capital io bankso theyey coulduild deeper, stroronger seguards againstthe prospectcts of a deeperr recece. we put i in pce a set of innotive financing mechanisms to help restart the crcredit markets. and 've reinfced the finanancial fodations of our government spoponsored mortgage terprises and launcd a corehensive program to mitigate the housing c crisis. the send criritical elent of our strategy was to help offset the substantial contraction in prive demand.
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wiwithin jusweeks of taking office, esidentbama worked for the congress to puput in ple the most sweepiping, theargest onomic recovery packagage in our nation's hihistory. a c comprehenve program of tax incecentivesor bususinesses and households, supppport for state and cal governments a and investments in ctical enomic priorities such at publi inastructure, ergy, healthth care and educion. this recovery act was cocombined to providede a sustain boost to ececonomicrowth over a two-year period and the admintration hahas movedith care and speed to put thesese programs in place quickly and d as the program m degned, the largest effecects on the s spendinside will start to take effect over the next six months. the thd key piece of the president's ststrategyas ternational. as we moved quickly to address e problems w we fe in the united states,s, we wororked wih the majorr economies of the word on a coordinateded progr of macroeconomic stimus and financial ststabilizion.n. wewe've agre to keep our markets open to trtradend investmenentnd
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we blt c consensus on a ceptionally largerogram of financial support t for ememerg and developingng econoes through the imf and the mul later developmenent bank anand together, ththis rresent today most aggreressive t internional responseto c crisis in the l last50 ars, implemenented one prececedented speed and breath. unlike thehe c crisis of the '6 the 70s and the '80s and '90s, is time the world camame toelg gether and the combined d effect of these actctions has subsbstantiall reduced the risk of a m much deep and re prprotractedlobal recsion.. in the uted states, the re of declin of economic activivit has slslowed,usiness and nsumer confidence hass started to improve. e housing markets are showiwing some signsns of stabibility. ththe costf borrorowing, e cost of credit hahas fallen gnificantly. creditarkets are opening up and the improvements hahave bee more s substanti and havave com more quickly than many of us expectcted whethey were designed
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december and january.y. alalongside ese signs of stabilation in the united states, we're seeing the ininitl signs s of progrs gbally, as we. i arrive here from europe whee thpace of contraction is showowing signof moderatioion. japapan, similar signs of stabization are starting g to emerge. in cna, the g governmt has been scessful in using policy to lift demamand and this is in turn helping t to boost the prprospects for oth asian economies.s. in brazil,l, growt prospects ar improvoving. here in s saudi arabiaia, the nl economy hasstarted to expand boosted byy one othe largest pocies. on t the strem of this global respse and these ininitial signs of tractction, the iimf recent upgraded its forecast predictctg 2.5% growth f for the wor
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economy in o r 2010, slower than the t typical rovery, butu recocovery, nonetheless. the press of repai i is going to take c consideray more ti. e crisis has been brutatal a givenheextent of mage to financial systems, givivenhe exte of the ls ofwealth and gave the necessary adstments many of us have to go thrhrough to a longg period excessive borrowing, it seems realistic c toexpect a graduall recovery w with more than the usuaual ups anddowns and tempory reversrsals. growth will turn positive fore unemploymentpeaks. certainty will continunue to slow the pace of recoverery in w privatinvestment and credidit conditionsns are likely to remn unusually tight, even ass growt rerecovers. our challenge e -- and ts is our collective challengege globally is toake sure w we provide a steadydy, forcul and sustained level of supportrt f for econom growthth until we are confident
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that wve established coitions led for a durable recovery.. although this strategy has b be susuccessf so far in reducing th risk of catastrophic failure in our f financialystem and reducing thehe risk of a much deeper glolobalrecessssion,e ned to keep the ggrowth, key econonc growth the f focus of picy. the classic tragigic errors of ececonomicolicy and nancial crisisis and economicc csis arou the world a goverents act typicallyy too latete witit insufficient force a and tn they put on the bkes too early. they put on n the poly brakes too early. and we are not going to repeat these mistakakes. atat the samtime, w realize that wee need to bld a bter founundation oe recovery has firmrmly tak hold. and thus the fourthelement of our strategy is to cus on the futurere, even as we confronont mediate challenges ofhe currrrent crisis. inhe united states, w weeed to make suree that as we rebuild, e
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build a strtronger, more productive econom an onomy le prone to periodic finanancial crisis wh with thegains of economic grorowthore broad shared. at's why in the united s states we are shiftfting resourcrces t imove education and infrtructure and t toimprove enenergy efficiency. th's why we're engaged inn fulgdz reform of our heah care stem. thatat's why wre moving to put place a moreomprehensive d prudent iut of oversig and regulation overur fifinanciasystem. and that's w why it's so impornt thatat the exceptional actions we've taken to help address the crisis are t temporarynd will be reversed as soon as ththe crisi has definitivelely receded. the united states iss onn unsuststainable fiscal crisis a weneed a a cdible commitment t o addresss our long-g-term fisl deaf sis sits. that's why thehe president madet clear congress tt as soon as the crcredit is estlished wiwill brg down our budgets that
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is sustainablele for the l lock teterm. for that,, tha means bringiging the imbalance between o our fcal expendititures andur to the point ofoughly 3% of gdp where the overall l level of p publict to gdp stabizes at a manageablele level.l. iteans maning furchlhl spenendingcommitments and the parts of the kd of sciplines we cl papay as you go rules.. and it requires reducing longng-term grth and o our heth care cososts andeforming social serity. now, giviven the dollar'srole i the international financialal systemem and the vevery subststl impact t that the u.s. economyhs on global economic conditions,, we fully recnize that the united states has a specicial responsibility, a s special rol to p play. and we are commimitted to preserving thehe openns of o economy. since ththe controversy surroundining the dubai ports dl 1996, our gernment has put in place aeries of digns for
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secucurity wle providing re clity to invevestorses. since 20, publicly announced foreign investstment inthis are s exceeded 24 billion helelping ememployme in our coununtry as ll as in your coury and in the gulf. these include purure chances ofe plastics and a planned multibilillion dolr investment in a new york manufacturing plant. and inteternatiolly, even as we focus on recovery, weeneed to lay the foundation for m more banced and more sustainable global growth withtronger institutions to prprevent an manage fututure cris. totoward thi eend, i think e wod has yet to fully apprececiate the scale of ambiti, the scacale investment, anand the sce of reformrm and cngewe're seeing
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in theingdom and the gulf. you' building world clalass institions for highe ededucation alongside reforms t improve e the quity ofrimary and secondary ucation. you're trying to build futuree less depennt on oil and tural gas. and want to undscore the depth ofofur to the natiol security and to th broadader community of nations.s. we're workiking clososely toget deny fund to go extremist groups worldde and t to prevent the prolifeferation onuclear weweapons. fr bally too nie obi, extremis hahave causeproblems d it has causedus to take e stro actction again those that seek to manufacacture nuclear weapons or t to exporthat technonology. the k kingdom has decided to d r an disrupt ose and to join with us in our effortso combabat
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thee p prolifetion off nuclear weapons. we welme the governnt's cocommitmentto continue t to wo gether alongng with others around the world a and w weook forwarard to makg additional progress. prpresiden obama said the unite ates stands ready to join with yoyour businesses, your comommu leaders and governnt to face the largest economimicchallenge our time. he announced we'r're providing w urse for business partnershships across the regi. we'relanning on hosting a summit on entrreneurship thiss year o how we ca increas tiess in t the unitestates and in muslim countries arounundhe world. and recogninizing the many americs want to continue make fill an anthropologic ntributions abroad,d, t the president has askedhe treasury departnt to wor with the
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mmunities to develop safe and fective ws to facililitate humanitarian assisistance to vulnerle popupulation saudi arabia has taken stepto strengthening its owown chariti and we look f forward to worork with these organizations. let me concludee b saying whwha the about the e said i cairo. the estion is whethther we spend the time focused onn whatushes apart or whetherer we commit or see ourselves s to an effortrt, sustaiained effo to find common ground, to o focus on ththe fute we seek for our childre and t t respect e hanity for all human beings. the presidenent is committeded thisobjectitive. wewe share a historic oblation d a great oortunity to find ways t to bud a strong and safer global econy. i thinwe've made aood statart these last fe months ande have thehe capacit to do m much more thank you u very much. >> okay.
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at was u.s. treasurury secrary tim geithner r deliveri a s speh in jdah, saudi arabia. says the force of the recessssion is receceding, alsot the imprprovement in u.s. econoc conditions perhapsps cominsooner than expected, a also spoken te dollar, as youu did hear he's headinto the uauae before head to go parisisto w wrap up his . meantitime, comg up on "wororldwide ehange," will posive news from wall reet tripip up trearies?
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the nation's biggest lders to sll businessbut regulators saiaid theyoebl belilieve cit would posose a systemic risk if thehe files fo banknkruptcy the ic has y to approvovets applation to approve gogovernmentacked debt. moody'ss and&p c ci's rateding on nday. comiming upn the next h hour of "wororldwide ehange," meredith whitneney raises g goldman shs a buy aheadadof today'ss second quarter reresults. wewe will aess whether profit will top thehe $2 biion mark. the companies s the wld
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know that coconnectity is about reacaching furer, faster t tn anyone else. together, we're helpininto shape the exchanging wororld. nyse euronext. p pering e exchanging world..
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>>i'mhristine tan inspect as asiaia, a birally in banking stocksks helpelight a fire.. >> i'm roswesate. ag scoops up idas shes. itit's the first major takeovern germany is year. >> and i'm scot wapnern the s. goldman sachchs gets the ball rolling r the financial sectctor today. 's the first ofof banks to
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reportrt resultshis we. just got the test snapshot o of german investor confidence for junee at -- sorr, for july accor to go zew and it's comome in weaker thahan expected. economic s sentiment index, 39 pp we are lookg for it to be 47.8. was 44478 in june. in ct, it has weakened. the current condnditions indicacator, minus 889.3 versus mis 89.7 and, again, we werere expecting it too be nus 88. let't's get retion tothis. matthais, what draragged this down? weere looking for an improvemt. >> we ththink ou experts h have slslightly corrected the exctations for germany afterer the strong increases of our indicator in t the last mon. thislso suguggests there is stilsome u uncertaty about the
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futureevelopment of the german economic and indicicates that t process of economic recoverery willll be slownd long. >> are gettg reports outut yestererday, som suggesting t t some w were thiing thahat gdp might stabililize in gerny this year. but what does th suggest what invests think about the growth tes of germany? >> well we ao see a stabization. fofor exampl the assessment of the currentsituation of our -- of germ fee has s remain almost unchanged over t the las two mont.. this i indicates there iss some kind o of ststabilizion. however,r, econoc growth is assumemed to pick up over the year. howevever, groh rates will be very sl. >> is therere anythin -- anytng particularly posititive in t report, matttthias, or not? >> yes, of course, posite newsws, for example, ththere's industririal pduction, ioming ordeders have ireased this mo
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month. this is od news. however, when you u compareit, for example, to lalastyear, the figures are still veryry low. >> thank you so o ch, mahhhias foroins us charlie will be joining us for the ho. any comments from that. >> i thihink the rponse we've seseen from e zew is very connected toto that. in termsof reading into o it, nt too much. weirtalking about a stabilizingg economy and it's constentith that. >> we'reooking ahead to earnings report, the ftse cnb 0 up nearlrly points. the ftse 100 up .5%. xetra dax up .0.%.
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cac 40 up .2.25%. smi up .9%. there st a weakerr dollar againt the pound and the euro, christine. >> the weaker yen is helpi the japanese markets,ro. we had good economic data coming out fromsingapore s showing t economomy came out of arecessio. gdp grewew by over 20%. the nikkekei 225 is up 2.3%. the he helpingng exexporters. the kospi isis up .5%. shananghai compositep 2%. nymelight sweet cru is u 79 cents,s, seeing recovery the, $ 6/0.48 barr. brent t is rerecovering trang a $61.59 barrel, up 88 cents. scott. >> christine, if you're just t joining us in the ununited stas, welcome toto thetart of your global trade dag. this is "wldwide exchange" oadcast live from the e u.s.,
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asia and europe. in the u.s. right now, as we takeke a look atthis trtrading ahead of gogoldman sachs, c cril earninings reportsts, key data loot todaday, retaill sales, pps going to give e us a rd on inflation. e dow ride now, a few points below fair valuable. dell may be weighing on ththe marketet just a ttle bit andnd that shohould be sloets cloly watched stock toda takeke a loo at the ten-year yiyield, 3.32% in items of u.s. easuries, as i mentioned, likelyo be acte as a rest ofof the dat coming out todaday. 3.38% is the yield onon the ten year. ba to you, chriine. >>scott, let's get b back to chararles dieble. nd markets had a good r run last week. as w we get in earnings eason, isis the fix income marke going to stall hehere? > i thk that's theikely
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outctcome. we've had a song run in bond markets overthe past few weeks as peoplee rhought the v-shaped scenario a some of the economicic data as we just saw th the zew started t toause to a degree.. we're now intoo t summer season, volumeses are low,w, pe are veryncertain as to how the outlook isoing to panan out from here and more less, this would close to where you think ir value is so peoe are lacking a strong drive toto pushh the mamarket t way. inhe short-term, at least, we're going to see a r range und fairly choppy type markentil weet to sepeptember. maybybe we getome clarity on whetheher the equity marketsts going to accelera away or fafade. >> they talk about growt rate for germany likely to remain aroundnd zero til 2010.
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that should sort of support bond markets. but wherere does justify yiel being? >> thiis exactly thehe question ople are debating. th're trying to discountnt where we're goioing to in the fututu from here.. a low growth, low inflalation environment t is a good vironment for bondsds. but-- >> sub-3% on the ten-yeaear t-note? >> tt's relalatively aggressive. our call is bond mararkets holdg in a relately broad r range for ththe next fewew m months with s betwee3% andnd 3.75% >> charleles, scott here in the u.s. practicece it's aactice pro ass we take a lk at earnings thihis week t that th steepening yield cucurve hareally helped outut se of the financicial stock
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i'm curious, your outltlook for that continuiuing? >> in the sho-term, the cururve is g going t remain n steepene without t a doubt. that has been par of the plan with respect t to the measures taken by polilicymakers i think ththat it depends on th duration of the slowdodown. if have this longng-term, low grth, low inflion type enviroent there is going to be this innt encouragement too pu out the yieield cur as peoplele seek rerns. this was sething that was evidt inapan during their lost dade enario. if theree capitutulation on th vi toward slow grgrowth/low inflation enenvironmt, then you wi see this ve towards exextending duration and a flatr te structure frorom here. because we'reeertainly a very
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long way awayrom talking a abot a shiftt in monetary policy and thereby, if you like, a strtron driving flattetening of e curve. >> ssure. thanks so much, charles.s. i know you're goi to stick around for bit. still to o come o"worldwide exchan," all eyes turn to goldman sachs as the nk is expeed to pt a strorong numr in earninings. hi, may i help youou? yeah, i'm looking for cainsurance that isn't goingng toreak the bank. you'ren the right place. onlyrogressive gives yoyou the tion name your price. here. a price gun? mm-hmmmm. , i tell you whatat i want pay. and we build a policyy fit your budget. that's cool. uh... [ gubeeps ] [ laughs ] i el so empowered. power to the peoeoplha ha! yeah!
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e option to nameme your ice -- new and only from prprogresse. call oclick today.
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good to have y you bk on "w"worldwidexchange." goman sachs is the firstst of the big u.s. banksoeport second quarter results this week. goldman n will pt numrs at 30 a.m. new york time. the company is forecast to report 3.30 a share.. t many a analysts believe goldman will beat tt estimate. meredith whitney upgrad em a buy. >>hereou think that goldman will be a pure pla e equity trade, it's a actually the numu onenderwriter of buildmerica bonds, a t top underwrwriter in munis, playing ttifily in the mortgagage-bacd markets. they played heavily in n the agency rket. >> that was medithwhitneney, of
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coururse. joining g us now is richard ate from a atlantic uitieses and charles ebel is remaininingwith us frorom nomura, ststill witu as well. chard, so meredithh whitney cos out yesterday andnd makes a big call? where was she on june 5th wheh you made the callll? >> that't's rit.t. we upgraded t this stock ovever montnth ago and put out very hi numbers. i mean, i think t the whole mart now knowsws cleay goldldman is going have an extremely goodd second quararter. so i thihink upgradiding the st one daday before the result is perhaps a littttle late. but everybody knknows the fixed income tradi performance of goldman willll be extremelyly sg in t the secd quarter andnd tha will drive thehe overallnumbers. > i liketthat, sayining mere whwhitneyas a little late rather than sing you were eaearly. i will t take thaton this ow. we like that. t's look ahead t to the rest of the nancial ctor.
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what are goldman'ss numbe goi to mean fofor the re of the fincials, if anything?? >> well i think all thehe univerersal bank are going to have good nuers. this incdes gp morgan, nk of america and merrill. so their investme banking divisionwill be very strorong and ththat's going to go some w to oset some big losses i in their retail a and consur businesseses. both jpmorgan and goi to the absorb big investments t this quarter. >> inn ter ofof wider sentiment for e sector, w which when a i morere important, jpmorgann or ciciti? >> welell, younow, you had this big rally yesterday. sentntiment improved, people fe
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financials havave trad off for e last mmonth. th's been in line for ththe market overall. clclearly weill have gogoldman numbers morrow. the st of theanking sector is going to have s some ptty weak numbers again. bank o of arica is goi to barely b profitable. jpmorgan little bebetter. t i think when youou get to see their results come out, the debatete will shift onono how b the credit card loss are going to be, what's going to h happeno commercial reaeal esta loans ovover the nt couple of years. it's going to o go back to cred losses, i thk, and the emphasis w will shift a away fm investme banking.. you know, charlieie, you guys ways like to take thmost pessssimistic ew of these sort things. theseank nuers will be very impoportant. what are thehe debtguys going t lolook@lik my instintive e reaction would behat if is so w well advertised that goldman going
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to be od, the price aion has moved to the upupside and the risks now toto the sets of resul we're ing to go and people are prpricing to the downsi and pricing fofor a a good outcomem rather than a bad d outturn. > richard,, let me jump in.n. apart from goldman, w which oth u.s. bks do you like? >> i think t the -- going bac t whatat we saidpreviouslyly, theg univerl banks whichch can ofet some of theseretail investstments, bh bank ofof america andnd jorgan at the moment.. but really, the stock ich we think very cheheap is bank of americica. this was obviouslyly tught out heily earlier in the e yea concer about nationalizatation. it's clearly come back quite a
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long way from ere. bubut i thinthat, you kw, the rest of this year and over the next couple ofof ears, as they inteate their recent acquisisitionsi think you'll start to see in terms investor sentimentt imove thehee anif theyan at some stagege repay thee t.r.p., which t they clearlhaven't done yet, then it sort of reremoveshat sia, as wellll. sohere is certnly room for a reevaltion in bank of amera than anywhere ee. clearly the situatition remns very d difficultor them as it does for allll the bks. i think thee baing sector will be driveven by more what happen onconomic indicators and viously people will watch what happens with unemploent and whether r the green shoot continue. and thatill conontinue its efct sentiment against t the banking sector. > okay. richard, we'e're goingo have to leave it there, ririchard spada research at atlalantic equities anand chars iebel, head of
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eupean rate strategy will stick with us, asas well. johnson &ohnson reports secretarary qrter results befefe the opening bell today. revevenues a expected toto drop for a third straight quarteras j&j d deals with generic competion for two off its drugs and as invnvestors cut back on spending. profits are fecast to d drop shararply from year ago, but analysts will belieieve the bellweer will indicate abilization. let's s take a look at intell a j&j. dell expects second quauarter revevenues ride slilightly fr the previoious quarter. however,he compmpany sa profit margines likelely t to drop duet a combinationf component costs d competitive pricing dell says bubusiness customers e putting off purchchases o n new technology.. dell hol i analyst annuaual meeting later today.y.
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today in frankfurt, down by another 2%. christstine. >> scott,, japanese carmakers nissanan and honda are ramping productionon capacitin china. ina ovevertook th u.s. as t world's biggest autoto market is year. nian says it's boostiting prododuction20% this year. hohonda, meanwhwhile,is lifting output capacity to m more th 0000,000 uns. honda'a's presidt and ceo says emergingarkets will be key to the company's recovevery. >> tralator: i think it wl take a very long time beforthe u.s. and europ recover. the recovery ismuch fast in chinina and india. that's w iope by 20, we ll be back to 2007 lelevel. >> stl in japan, the rulining block has voted down a n no
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confidce motion againstrime mininister taraso.o. the democrats earlieier commted a no confidence vovote against m criticizing the e econom popolicies. the oppositition h heldupper ho has endndorsed a nonbinds censu against him. this all comes a day after taro aso sa he would call an election august 30thth. >> stiltto comeme,s down more than 5% on the news thatat it's acquiring ibs share. we know why we'r're here. to bui a new generation o of airpnes to connect t the world ailanand make nonstop t tvelpos. and rther on less fuel. announcer: arou the globe, the e peoplef boeing are working togethther-- to bring us togetherer
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okay. ahead of the u.s. open, wel bring yoyou up to spee with what's hapappeningith global equity market we are firirmer. becky, start us off in ndon. > than, ross. the ftse 100 is managingg to hag on to thosese gain we're looking at market higher by .7%. we've hahad inflion data out this mornining showi that inflatioion is droing back, actual, falling below tt 2% bank o england target for thee first occasion in some time.. lookining at annual rarates of . is doesn't seemm to have had a ge impact on the marts today. we are barely steady by points or so at this stage. amongst the bigge gainers, bac resesources stocks are dog
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their bit t higher by 8.9%. lonmin, not fast behind, kazakhmy's,, xstratata and rio tinto. vodane istill the biggestst declin. we have e had a dngrade from the analysts from ubs on vodafone. the ares of the companare trading lower today. papatricia, w is it lookining i germany? >>well,l, we stilillook quite firm, up about 0.9%. i have to say, volumes are sligly better than yesterdrday at ts me. arou 29 million shaharesave traded andnd we had macroecononc data invesent and confidee below exexpect ag so we e had a rise of ababout eight cononsecue months.. now it s seems a analysts ink there is a euphia, thinking the w whole ide that therere isa big recovevery.
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howevever, what seems to happe ght now is a litt bi of a wake-up call tt we might have seen the botottom here, but t t doeses not necessarily eql a quick recovery.y. athe moment, at seems to be exprpressed in the zew index. bmw and deutsche b bores arehe main stotocks pulling up up thi morning. overo paris. >> thehe vololumesre very ak. 450 million e euros have been trad since the opening this s mornining, whichs much lower than a typicalday. not a huguge activity, buttill a very g good seion for the carmakers. renault is up after announcing ssan would increrease manunufacturg in asia by 20%. nault and peuge is up 3
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noover to saij in singapore fothe asian arkets. all the asiaian markets closing high today. volulumes were thihinn certain marketets. it might sow t that th ray might not t be susinable. the nikkei up 2., snapppping a ne-day losing streak there. the yeyen pling backk a b. and the e utos, like stephe had justmentiod, nissanoing very well, u up7.3%. honda is sayingg it's boosting production capacity y inchina, s well. for the greatest chinana reregion,the rally thereed by the ffinancial hang seng indndex closed upup7.. quicklwant to menention the singaporore market, ti closing p 1.9% following the r regional
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markets higherer. now over to scott in the u u.s. >> earnings aren't thee oy thinon the table for investors today. jujune p will be out at 8:30 new york time. the core ppi, whichtrips out food and enerergy, is expeed to remain unchand. at 88:30, junee retail l sales bereased. andd by .6% when youuxclude auautos. at 10:00 a.a.m., may business ininventorieare out, foreca to ll by .8%. s.e.c. chairmaman mary schapiro testifieies befo a house capital market scommittee hearing at 100 a.m. new york timen changes the agencis making i a post doff world. she's pected to outline a number of moves unde way incling improrovements in staff trainining and overhling th syst for handlin tips on s.e. fraud. tin specter g generals expectct to relee a port in thee next six weeks s on how and w the agency misissed the mado case..
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that is s your global stock wat. over to you, chrisistine. >> come up, meredith whitney sasays bu goldman sach so is it time to t back into financia? e-mail us, to look k after myoney." tdd#: : 1-800-342550 tdd#: 1-8080345-25 that's great, but m not." tdd#: 1-80800-345-25 "i guess i'm jususdone wh doing nothing, y you kno" d#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-0-5-2550 "ohg about moving my money.y. tdd#: 1-800-345-5-2550 am moving it."
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it is 30 minututes past the hour. here are thehe topusiness ststories om aund the worlrld. inin the u.s., golan sachs gets the ball rollingng for the fir of the f financi sector todayas the firstst othe big banks to report resulults this week. >>. >> eope, there areains against the doorl has gern sentiment fell unexpectedly in jujuly. >> andere in as, a b big ralally in banking stocks light the fire under mo stocks here. >> let's set you up p for th trading ay, theecond one of the we. we have retetail sales, produce
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prices, goldman sachs earnings t me mentio too, that the treaeasury sretary tim geithn an you know, we're e lookinto see ifif the comnts have anythingo do with the direion of the market todaday, basicay saying that the recession isis receding, thahat u.s. econic conditionsns are coming soonener than expected. he made those comomments over i saudii ararabiatoday.y. but you'll e that the dow tures are even with fair value, a fl.. the nasdaq is stitill little bit below and perhaps that is due to thosose dell margins thae mentioned todaday. the companyy making comomments ahead d of its analysts andaying whwhile business there is stabiling, marargins could remain under pressure or at leasast challged a bit soso tha could igh on shareresf technogy todaday. take a look at theen-year yieleld like to be active today. and d then retail sales, the t years at 3.39%.%. >> thanks, scot lookthat's whehere the futures are pointing at. right t now, eurean marts are indeed up, eding on from where
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the u.s. c closed in the asian sessn today. we've been up not quit a percent. xetra dax up 1%. half a% for the cac 40. retail stocks, on a dodownday, they're the woworstf the performers, but babanks an financialsls are doi fairlyy well. guess what?? the yen is weakerr across the board. it'sown against the dollalar a 93.14. anthe dollar is weaker againstst the eu and the pound, although the euro ce offf it bt levevels of e day after t the germ iestor s sentimentame in weaker ththan -- d i say ifo? i'm sorry, i mnt to say the zew indicator cameme in weakake than expected cistine. >>nother three-letter word. well, here in asia, bankingngnd mimining stocks doing very well. obvisly, lighting a fire ununder sosome of ese isn'tmtment here asia. of course, w we had da coming out from singapore owing the economy leapiping outf
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recessioion. take a lolookt the index, up 1.9%. a a nice bst there. the hang seng, the big winner up 3.6%. the kospi up 0.5%. the nikkei up 2.3%. the weak yeyen helped to lif th exportrter stks there. oil is recering in t terms of what's happeningng with e glolol cture. nymex lit sweet crude is up 85 cents, $60.53. brent is n now trading around t $61 mark the last timee i remember. $61.64, up 3 cents. sct. >> hristine, joining us now f market strategy, charles did i ebel is withth us so we hahave bond guy and an n equity g today. peaps the three anchorors of this show shohould step outt of viewew a let you guys go at it.. whatat's the m most important t you're looooking a today is it t goldman,retail or the ppi?i? >> to me,, scott,t, it's goinin
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be the ppi followed closely by goldman. but t the rson ii like to fus inin on th ppi is we've got a lt of economic c data her this ek. anand the reon i like to cus on the ppi t this week isecaus i thk a little bit of ination for this market t is a good t thing. a month ago we missedd analyst expectations. wasnegative for t the mblth. i'm ping that w we see a number that comeses in betr than expectationsns theree becae i'm not ovey concerned about inflation here. i'm mo concerned ---- i don't wanto say dlation, but i'm more conrned about priricing poweat these companies.. >> judd, any reactionn to what e hearddrom gegeithner this morning? the e force recessssion ecedin, u.s. economic c conditioncoming sooner than expected. what do yoyou thin >> y you kn, i think that that - it's definitely popossible, t what i' learneded to hearr fro kind of speak t of washingtoton in generals that ere's a lot ofifferent way toes spipin it. d i remember back in february
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and january when washington was selling t their budgetet, they not thininking tha unemplploymet was going to hit 10%nd now they're saying thahat it' going to. so i i take everything w with a grain of lt. bucertainly, getting t those cocomments think could allow us to c continue to rallyly again y following on the gains we had sterday.y. >> judd, you don't think thehers a ---- nececessarily an inflati story, but youu hate treasuries. why? >> wwell, jt because i thihink that relative to corporate bonds and relatative to theeturns that you can get from som decent dividedend yieldg stocks, i thk the 3. in u. treasusury bonds, it's nottnecessary to inst there. remember, the bondnds rallied a ton n because of the factt that they we a flight to ququality. and i i think that asterisk premiums decreasee little bit,t that c could put treasasuries ur pressure a almostore than the threat of inflation. remembmber, we'r basicallyly rh back around to where the yieiel was there bk in october. and the eity market is in the
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same place. sof you like equities, they' a better b that treasusury pep. >> charlie,o on, stick u for your tasuries friend no, i can n see whe the comments are coming frfrom. to me,e, the biggest concern yo face att this point in t timeis ally whether the econonomy is gogoing to gn traction. the marke are taking a binary view of thearkets at th poin the mamarket is sort of flickerg betweethose twtwo. whatt's having difficicult dedeeming with isis this stabililization,ery low grgrowt very l low inflation scenario. that environment is s a bond friendly envnvironment on the whole, ththey shld perform ry well. >> okay. and i think charlie and i i are basicay -- like you u said,
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we're saying thehe sa ththing, it's a m matter o timingg and rerelative and i'm momore of a trader t th long-term m investorn this case. so as i look at it in the short-term, i think yoyou'll ha an oortunity to purche bonds wh they have a better yield than they do now. we're e pretty close to thehe s pies there. >> hey, judd, this is chrtine. inerms of strategegy, one sector you'll fd compellings ything health h care related.. y is that? >> i i'm a bitof a contrararian here and looking at history. when we e go back to 1993,3, wn the saberr was raled, a lotf those health cacare stocks turd out toto be prettyy decentt y. ththese stocks,his year in february whehen the dget was announced, they y sold off. they l lost the -- rememember, this sector suld be somewt recessioion proo or quote/unqnqe
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safe haven a and th never g got there. i thinthere could be too much sk premium baked into those health care stocks. whatat we finally g get out of washington is more o of a compromise. and wee seen that overr the st few wes. as more comments havee ce out of waington about therere being moref a public and private tion ther you've s seen shares ke etntna and welll point start to takake off here. and i tnk there's stilll opportunitity therin those areas, wther it's micine stronior johns &ohnson or things like e that. >> okay.. we'll hold you on that view and ask you backck in a couple of months' tim judd, thankou so much for being g with us today,, market analalyst and arles diebel, you'll continue to s stay withs. let's head over to tokyo andnd checin on the trading day there. >> hi there, christine.e. after a ninday sli,okyo ocks made a comeback today fofollowinthe rise on w wall street. ththe nikk index ro 2.3% to
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9,26 not quitenough to erase yesterdaday's losses financial shshares we stro with sm up more than 5%5%. top brbrokeaej housese noma holdings jped 6.8 pefrs. nissan motor rose mover than 7 after the e nikkei rorted that thautomaker plplans to lift its ovoverall capacity in china in reresponse to strong local dand the. honda sasaid it plans raise prododuction a its china joint veure. today, toyota rled out its first hybr vehiclcle under t th lexubrand. the cheapest model, thehe 250h priciced around $40,00000. the automaker plans to s sell me ththan 500units per month in japan and will sell thehe vehi in north america from septembeb. kiraran and sontotory are in discussisions to integegrate ti
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companieies. the president totold reporters th morning that they aim to conclulude the dl as early as this year. tint gragz wouould essentiallll boosvending machine operations. market currentntly dominated by the coca-cola group. after the ll, they will b back up 2 mimillion shares. that was t the nikke business report opinion back t to u, chstine. >> moriyasu-sanan, tha youor that. > still to come, cnbc find out where bernie mamadoff i h headig to spepend the restt ohis life and wewe'll tell you who his ja tes will be. stay tuned to find out. before that, he is aook at how u.s.s. futuresare shaping u onhis tuesday morning. welcome toto the nowetwork. populalaon 49 llion.
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right now,w, 1.5 million people are on a c conferee call. 750,00wish they w weren't. - ( phones chihirping - construcuction worrs are makakg 244,0 nextel direct connect cacalls. 1 milln people are responng to an email. - 151 accidentally h "reply all." - ( foghorn blows ) that's happeneng now. america's s most dendable 3g3g network bringi you the first wiress 4g network. - sprint. the nonetwork. -- ( whsh sound ) deaf, hard of heararing and people with speeee disabities accessss
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welcome back to o nbc's "wororldwidexchange." here are some of theop stories we're watching from m around t world. cit oup is reptedly in advanceded talks aboutossibly getting financial aidid frothe u.u.s. gornment. the compy is one of the nation's bigiggest lenenderso smsmall businesses. regulators say the don't beeve cit would pose a system risk if it files for bankruptcy.. the company conrted to a bank hoing company last year, but the fd has yett topprove its application to i issue
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gogovernmentacked debt. moody's cutcit's rangs on monday. even ratne is stepping down at presidt obama's carczar. ratner is rurning torivate life. repos say he is not p plannin toto rejnququadrang. reports s say that ininvestigat has intensisified in rent weeks. neither tner nor quadrangngle have been accusesed of wngdoing. there is no cononnection betetw him stepping dow mewhile, b bernie doff is cucurrently at a feder penen teary in atlanta.a. he's eected to be sent to butler, n north colina, about an ght-hour drive toto new york ci. mamadoff'sawyer had ask for
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him toto be houousedloser. he i is join several inmatess a buer including john riga accused of securitieses fraud i 2004. >> german iestor sentint unexexpectedly dropped in july r the first timsince january of st year. it was4444.8 in junene. after ththe data, the euro peard its gains s against e dollar. christin >> and the latt about the iron ore sasaga in china, accding t reuter sources, china is viewing all impmport licenses held bysteel mills and may cancelel as many as 2020 l lice those making spelative purcrchases. anwhile, accorng to china' national b business ily,
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auththorities ve ceased several computeratrio's shangha offices. authorities s had stepd up presre on chihina to move ququickly inealing with h the detention of rio'ss top iron or sales s issu. >> the govovernmenis dealing with this ise. it involves issues of f the applplicatioof chinesese law. weave a consular a agreement with them and we e are dealing a respsponsible d measured way, in the way in n which reonsible gogovernmes deal with these issu. >>nd separarately, a dow jones report sayss bhp's iron ore divisi is not being investigated byy china, plalayi down thatt it could facace a silar probe as rio. charlglgly, lot of dat out. whatat is going to be the mos importanthing for you to learn abt this week's's data? >> i think what we needed to kn, obviouslsly, ishow is th flation environment stacking g
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up because w we know we've had these vevery stron basee eeffec both pushing itp and thehen pushining ination rates down. you knknow, as i said, our thes is for alolong-ter low growth, low inflalationeenvironme. withhe output gapss where ty e, we feel veryomfortable with that b but we want to see that mataterial iegz. the other thing is i think we get t someurther informatition the u.s. housusing data. now,w, you know, l of the recovery plans ultimatelely hge on tngs like the housing mamarket in e u.s. stabilizizin and asset, we havenen't reay seen any sign of t that. if we e dostart to sea sign o o that, then il start to bieve more in thetory that we aree a let in the p process of stabizing. asset, w we haven' seen that. so that is onn athe end of th week a and thas the thi that's importt to me rightht now. > arles, good to seeyouou, from nonomura. whe are we?e? araround 12 minutes away frfrom "s"squawk bo" carl is s with us to tells what
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coming up. morning,g, carl. >> ss, i don't n needto tell yoyou, is all about earnings central this morning. two o giant mbers coming up, goldman n sachs,ohnson & johnson, w we'll he the numbers on both roooorts when they're reased in about two hours titime. also, brereaking ne on thee retail s sales andhe numbeberso inflation. ppcomes out at 8:30 a.m. thihis moing. capitotol hill i trying to get the ececonomyackon track. join carolyn maney a and repupublican congressmaman jeb henserling wilill battle it out about whether aa second stimul should be on e tab. 'll discuss that. plus,, bere mamadoffis on the momove. ross, earnings arere kind of li thee osca, right? there is allll of ts preshoww hypepe. all of that happe w when they openthat velope. that goldmaman nuer will be ge. >> absoluly.. and d you ha to wondeder,id we price th in yesterday, rl? that's a very good poin
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meredith whney made some ns re. people a saying maybe pt of that rallyot stolen,, got broughght in advancece little b, but we'l see. goldldman ha a hisistory of hav a higigh whisper numbe and beatineven that. > it'sunmissblble. whwherever y are,e, you havee t know what it is. >> carl, looking f forward to i. >> okay, man. >> guys, next, weook at the trading daday ahead on walll street. the.s. markets ready before those babank earngs. stick k around.
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let't's get aook to the u.s. trading day ahead t's bring in rob morgan. let's take a look at the t tradg day today. "squawk box" justt mentioningng j&j is outut today wong with goldman. which ismore impmportant is one
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morere importa to the market and onmore important to getting a read o on the enomy? >> i think the goldmann number will bmore important b because it willl give a preview into th financial sector. as you said, j&j isimimportant. intel reporting today, as well. so i think t those reports -- really, thee earnings sson kikicks off in earst tay. retail sales, also read on inflatnwith the i. so as yoyou mentionened, it's a day. where is the mamarketoing from herere, rob? assumi that goldmaman will beat theinumber, which everybody y expects is going to happenen? >> well, sscott, wve been in a bit of a pullblback for e last nth. i think k that i going too continue for t the shorterm.. wewe have market weight on stocks.. if we start toto see the earnin seon in generalal is bett than expected, that remain toes be en, if econonomic number are showing that t the green shoots arare oadening, then we c could
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find some intermediate rally and at could contin. >> ro do you thinknknvestment lue in the financial sector?? >> chrisistine, we have a a neu rati right now on financncials. the goldman reportt today importrtant, butgoldman isn't representative of ththe entire banking sector.r. ey're more of a trtrading-pe firm. i think e numbers do bt expectatations. we want to see h how citigroup, bank of america, some of ththe otheher regional banks do befor we get overl excited abobout financls in general.l. >> rob, obviviously wee very focused on goldn and the financials. t you knowow, sa they'ree better anand then,, you know, intelnd joson & johnn, you know, the outlook on that isn't't very pleasant to investors. wher will we fall? will w not know what to do? are we pitting everyrything the financncials? >> i don't thihink we're pittin everything on n the financia, ross. keepep in minhat the
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coconaccepts growth rate or decline e rate for earninings t quarter r is down 36%. exctations for the whole earnings seasoson are shed out. so if we just get a slight improvemt off of that, which coulstill beretty negagative, that wouldld turn t to be a prpretty gooearnings season. >> rob,b,it's scottagagain. if oiloes ddown, right, if that end continues and t the doar goes up, canan stocksgo upup? >> well they canan. but t i -- andnd'm not surure i would tnk that tha is the scenario that't's gointo happen, scott. i think really the dolla probobably connues to trend down fromom here. that obviouy givesome suort to the price of oil.l. but as you sasaid, if oil -- if the d dollar goes up, in some regard, thatat is a sign of a gring ececonomy. and ifif the ecomy isgrowing, then earnings have to grow as well, d stocks wouould climb
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that proverbial wawall of worry. so we'll just have to e which scscenario pys out. >> r rob, give me a ick couple of ctors that yoyou like.. >> l looking at theig mao view, we continue to like large cacap stocks a as wells international l stocks. as mentned, we think the dollar is going to decline and those sectors should b be boost. we would t tend to likike growt stks over valuetocks and then our favor stors of f the s&p wowould be > okay rob. >> thananks, scott. no, that's co. i i apprecia it. i'm m sorry to cu you short there. lelet's take alook a at futures which have improved d steadily. i'm scottapner in ththe u.s. >>i'moss westgate i in europe.. >> here in asasia, i'm chstine tan. thanks for your r company re on "worldldwide ehange."
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